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91.
J. R. M. Hosking 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(4):677-682
ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented. 相似文献
92.
James P. Hughes Steven P. Millard 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(3):521-531
ABSTRACT: A common problem arises in testing for trends in water quality when observations are reported as “less than detection limit.” If a single detection limit is used for the entire study, existing non-parametric statistical methods, modified for ties, are applicable. If, however, the detection limit varies during the course of the study, resulting in multiple detection limits, then the commonly used trend detection methods are not appropriate. A statistic similar to Kendall's tau, but based on expected ranks, is proposed. Monte Carlo simulations show that the normal approximation to the distribution of this statistic is quite good, even for small samples and a large proportion of censored observations. The statistic is also shown to have greater power than the ad-hoc method of treating all observations less than the target censored observation as tied. 相似文献
93.
David Berryman Bernard Bobe Daniel Cluis John Haemmerli 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(3):545-556
ABSTRACT: A review of nonparametric tests for trend leads to the conclusion that Mann-Whitney, Spearman, and Kendall tests are the best choice for trend detection in water quality time series. Recently these tests have been adapted to account for dependence and seasonality in such series (Lettenmaier, 1976; Hirsch, et al., 1972; Hirsch and Slack, 1984). For monotonic trends, a procedure allowing to select the pertinent tests considering the characteristics of time series is proposed and the practical limitations of the tests are also brought out. This procedure has been applied to identify the appropriate trend detection test for the time series of nine water quality parameters at Lake Laflamme (Québec). When a time series can be tested with the Mann-Whitney, Kendall, Spearman, or Lettenmaier (1976) test, the number of observations required to detect trends of a given magnitude, for selected significance and power levels can be calculated with the power function of the t test. When the test proposed by Hirsch, et al. (1984), Hirsch and Slack (1984), or Farrell (1980) need to be used, the number of observations can only be estimated approximately from the results of empirical power studies. 相似文献
94.
中国沙漠化灾害现状及其趋势分析 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
沙漠化灾害是危及我国广大干旱半干旱及部分半湿润地区持续发展的重大灾种之一。我国现有沙漠化土地20.1万km^3,造成的年直接经济损失17.4-20.4亿元。年总损失达783-918亿元,受危害的212个县(旗、市)的沙漠化灾害程度分别是134个轻度、54个中度和24个重度,随着沙漠化灾害的不断发展,预计到2000年时我国沙漠化土地的面积将达到23.3万km^2,107个县(旗、市)的沙漠化灾害程度 相似文献
95.
本文从中国环境立法,特别是再次修改《大气污染防治法》等展望中国大气污染防治的重要战略方向。 相似文献
96.
Trends in the Water Chemistry of High Altitude Lakes in Europe 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Mosello R. Lami A. Marchetto A. Rogora M. Wathne B. Lien L. Catalan J. Camarero L. Ventura M. Psenner R. Koinig K. Thies H. Sommaruga-Wögrath S. Nickus U. Tait D. Thaler B. Barbieri A. Harriman R. 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2002,2(2):75-89
Here we present the chemical trends of seven high altitude lakes, analysed within the AL:PE and MOLAR Projects of the EU (1999) and selected on the basis of the availability of complete and reliable data for the period 1984–1999. The lakes are representative of the Scandinavian Alps, the Cairngorm Mountains in Scotland, the Alps and the Pyrenees. Significant trends were identified for some indicators of acidification, for instance pH and alkalinity, but not all lakes reacted similarly to decreasing depositions of sulphate and base cations. Differences in lake response are discussed in relation to recent variations of atmospheric deposition chemistry and associated changes in climatic conditions. Beside individual variations of the studied lakes, depending, among other things, on altitude and morphology, catchment characteristics and climate trends play a major role for the reaction of high altitude lakes on changes in atmospheric depositions. 相似文献
97.
98.
喀斯特石山地区社会经济与生态环境可持续发展系统研究:以桂西北为例 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
本建立了广西西北部喀斯特石山地区可持续发展的系统动力学模型。并用DYNAMO程序预测了未来20年桂西北地区的人口、工业、农业、第三产业,生态环境,土地资源,社会总产值,人均国民收人等的动态变化趋势,结果显示,该地区由于人口,工业资产增加使物质和能源消耗增长太快,而对污染治理的投入又太少,导致桂西北地区的生存环境质量下降,因此应当加大对污染治理的投入力度,改善区域环境质量,这是实现息烽县区域可持续发展的关键,根据区域特点探讨了桂西北喀斯特贫困山区的形成演化,提出了可持续发展的途径。 相似文献
99.
100.
巢湖作为安徽省境内的一个重要湖泊,对安徽省生态环境起到一定的影响作用。蒸发量是影响生态环境的重要因子,在很多方面是该区生态环境的一个反映。采用了统计学方法,对巢湖流域15个蒸发点20年(1981-2000年)的资料进行了分析,初步探讨了巢湖流域的蒸发量空间分布特征与地势、气温、风速、降水量等因子的关系,以及蒸发量在1年内的变化特征和年际变化趋势,试图说明研究时段内人类活动对区域蒸发量的影响。研究表明,由于地形等因素的影响,巢湖流域的蒸发量空间分布不均衡,在研究时段内蒸发量大体呈上升趋势。 相似文献